On the Mythical Pilot Shortage, Airline Pilots on Food Stamps, and Jumping to Conclusions about Buffalo

Last week's blog about the controversial crisis in pilot hiring and flight training elicited some of the most emotional, most strongly worded, and articulate responses to any piece I've written in my nearly-15 years at Flying. To refresh your memory, in my blog I recounted the ideas floated around the table at a conference held by Delta Connection Academy about what many attendees saw as a coming crisis in flight training. Many there blamed the crisis on the credit crunch for students looking for loans to foot the training bill. Every issue was on the table at the get together, from low starting salaries, to difficult working conditions for regional pilots to the advisability of even choosing airline flying as a career.

While responses to my piece ran the gamut, the lion's share of the opinion was that there is no crisis in flight training, because there's no shortage of pilots.

One commenter wrote, "The reason pilot wages are low is because of simple economics- PILOT SUPPLY FAR EXCEEDS DEMAND so employers can easily pay a low wage to fill their pilot employment needs. This supply and demand metric will continue to be out of our (i.e. pilot's) favor well into the foreseeable future."

Another commenter disagreed, "Do the flippin' math! There will be a pilot shortage in the next few years. The military guys are not going civilian anymore. Many of the older guys that were furloughed with families will not return to aviation. Student starts are near zero! CFI's are not earning hours. Where are we going to get the new crop of pilots from?"

But there was little disagreement that pay has to increase for starting pilots. My modest suggestion that there should be a starting minimum salary of $30,000 was widely criticized . . . for being too low. I agree and argue only that I was trying to be realistic. Will an industry, the Regional Airlines, whose members feel justified in paying pilots indefensible starting salaries, ever be willing to pay more?

And my suggestion that the airlines start footing the bill for training was dismissed by some, not as being bad policy but for being naive: "Sadly, the simple fact of the matter is that pay will never increase," one commenter wrote, "and the airlines will never take on the financial burden of training it's own as long as $99.00 coast to coast fares remain an American birth right. A monster the airlines themselves created."

One reader sent me a link to a piece in which the author met the pilots of an RJ he'd been flying on and learned that he had been on and off of food stamps while fully employed as an airline pilot. Both pilots had part time jobs, one as a substitute teacher. The quality of life/safety nexus is hard to ignore. And while no one brought up issues associated with new, poor pilots commuting long hours to their assigned base, at the conference it was a topic of great concern. 

A representative of the Regional Airline Association said that we should not jump to conclusions about the Buffalo crash of a Colgan Air RJ that left 49 dead. But reading the transcript of the cockpit voice recorders leaves one with an inescapable impression that the flight was conducted in a non-professional manner by pilots who admitted on tape their lack of appropriate experience and discussed their commuting woes.

And our readers agreed. One weighed in on that "The Colgan crash never would have happened if they used a furloughed United pilot as a F/O. But then no United F/O would be working for such low pay. Pay has everything to do with safety."

One poster pointed out a parallel: "Deregulation has historically created these types of issues. We saw it in the trucking industry as well. The carriers kept undercutting one another until the poor driver didn't stand a chance."

A father of a young man who has been a professional pilot for a few years weighed in young people becoming pilots. "For the young prospective pilots.....I hate to say it like this but hear it goes.....find another profession. most people do not have the money it takes to become marketable. The pay is too low to make up any ground. Don't waste your time.

Finally, one poster hit the nail on the head as to why there will always be prospects for that new-hire right seat job: "My passion for flying will not even come close to being consumed by this negative attitude! Of course education costs money and a Master's in Aeronautical Science and all the ratings do not come cheap. Flying as a profession is a very personal choice and I hold it very dear to my heart. I can't see my life without it. So whatever it takes..I'll be in the cockpit..."

Comments

[lenny]

This country's priorities are all out of wack...any person who has two brain cells talking to each other KNOWS that carrying a plane full of passengers (lives) is more important than hitting a baseball, dunking a basketball, or catching a football. BUT.....which is more important to the idoits of this country....look at the pay...
Even a doctor who has a patient's life in his hands, usually only does so ONE AT A TIME, not 3 and on up!!!!!! Yes, most doctors pay for at least some of their training themselves. Most have grants from hospitals or other facilities. Some train in the military.
It is important for people who have to make instant decisions that affect the lives of others to be paid accordingly..but, hey, lets let the basketball player fly the damn planes...they are sooooooo talented!!!!!!!!

[Eric Fichtner]

I, for the most part, like the article and did read last weeks article. I am an airline pilot for ExpressJet, which in my opinion is the best regional airline. I agree wholeheartedly that pilot pay is much less than what it should be. I believe that it is because of many factors from the pilots and the airlines themselves. I remember as a student I couldn't wait to get the airlines. I would always say "I would fly those big jets for half as much as they are paying the current pilots just to have the job." Well it is partly that demeanor that got airline pay so low. The fact that the airlines can find pilot so fly there planes at that pay schedule and work rules. I of course have since changed that opinion and voted last year against pay concessions. Also, for regionals, pressure from the major they fly for to provide cheaper and cheaper service has lead to the labor costs. Regional airlines, whom I will not mention, who undercut everyone else to get the job no matter if they can pay the bills is certainly a major factor of why pilots get paid so little.
I mean what other perfession can you spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to get into with as much responsibility as pilots have get paid $20K so start. That is a redicules amount!!
Well, I really don't know what the answer is to those problems. The other reason I wanted to comment on this article was the statement you made in regard to the Colgan crash. I quote:
"But reading the transcript of the cockpit voice recorders leaves one with an inescapable impression that the flight was conducted in a non-professional manner by pilots who admitted on tape their lack of appropriate experience and discussed their commuting woes."
With all due respect, this is an ignorant statement. First of all the FO had over a 1000 hrs in the airplane and the captain had over 3000 hrs. I honestly don't think that inexperience was a contributing factor. "flight was conducted in a non-professional manner." By this I assume that you are talking about there conversations in a sterile cockpit environment. But lets be honest here, how many cockpit have you been in where the sterile cockpit was strictly adhered to? I have had few. I read the CVR as well and yes there they were not adhering to that rule, but the conversation was not excessive at all. They performed all there checklist at the appropiate time.
I will be happy to discuss contributing factor at a later time.
For the pilot shortage case. Here is my take: If there wasn't a pilot shortage than why were regional airlines hiring pilots with as little as 300 hrs in the last hiring boom?

Thanks for the thought provoking articles.

[Mike M]

Yes, unfortunately supply and demand does play a part. There are simply too many wet-behind-the-ears pilots out of flight training who will gladly go fly a jet (under any working conditions) for $1,500/month. And if enough home grown pilots don’t apply, the regional’s simply go shopping overseas and ‘green-card’ them over here. In the cut-throat business model that now represents today’s airline industry, asking the industry to ‘police itself’ is laughable. It will simply have to be regulated. The proposed requirement to have ALL cockpit crew members hold an ATP will help.

Personally, I think the deregulation of the airline industry has been a disaster for those who work in it, and the time has come to reign in this flying free-for-all. Name me any other industry where the cost of the product is essentially unchanged for the past 40 years, but the cost of providing that product has sky-rocketed??

[Mike]

My initial comment about the Buffalo crash is that it was unprofessional conduct that lead to the crash. No sterile cockpit, no attention to detail, attention devoted to emotional conversation (careers, progression, commuting, etc.), and lack of any airspeed callouts all contributed to that crash. If procedures had been followed I believe there would have been no crash. I do not feel that lack of experience was a major factor. Yes, both admitted they had only a little time flying in icing conditions, but following procedures would have helped them handle that. The Army Air Corps trained lots of bomber pilots and sent them on missions with as few as 200 hours. No amount of experience will save you if you do not follow procedures and do not pay attention to your job - flying the airplane.

The ExpressJet pilot who commented that he is seldom in a sterile cockpit should be fired, as should be the pilots with whom he converses. Breaking the rules that are there for the safety of the pilots and the passengers should not be tolerated. While I never would have thought of auditing CVRs, the ExpressJet pilot's comment has changed my mind. If the airlines do not audit CVRs then they should. If such audits violate collective bargaining rules, then both the pilots' unions and the airlines should be glad to amend those rules to help prevent another Buffalo incident.

[Ray P, CFII]

I don't see any real shortage of pilots. The regional airlines hired pilots with as little as 300 hrs in the last hiring boom because they were allowed to! (and their passengers know little about it)

I myself, and many pilots I know have 2000-5000 hours and are working part time in the Part-135 (charter) and Part-91 Business flying areas. We are also firemen, engineers, contractors, cfi's, etc. Many of us would not even think about taking a job with the requionals starting at $18,000 per year.

If a pilot shortage ever does happen, it will be the best thing that could happen to the industry. If the Regionals paid a respectable starting wage (say $45,000+), then they might find that experienced pilots would come out of the woodwork, many with decades of experience.

While I enjoyed reading some other commentors thoughts comparing pilots to doctors and sports profesionals. I agree with those ideas, it is Supply and Demand that set wages. Correcting the supply and demand balance is the only way to improve the plight of the pilot at all experience levels.

Flight schools "pilot factories" are a big part of the problem. They imply that a airline job is waiting for anyone who can come up with a $150,000 loan and complete a years worth of flight training. Yes, a job is waiting, and you are going to need to share an apartment with 4 others and get food stamps to make it by for the first few years.

As a CFI, I cannot in good conscience encourage any young person to persue an airline career. In fact, I try to talk them out of it. If I can't talk them out of it, then maybe they have what it takes to make it through: A love of flying that exceeds their need for a decent life.

[Steven Daun]

There are several different dynamics at work here which need to be considered. I have written on this matter extensively in Airliners Magazine. The issue of a "pilot shortage" by itself means nothing without considering all of the facts.

Facts:
1) There are fewer pilots learning to fly today than in the last 20 years.

2) The military is not putting out as many pilots as they have in the past.

3) Funding for new pilot training has all but gone away.

4) There are more pilots flying the line today over 55 than under 55.

5) There is a lack of industry understanding by the public and our senators and congressmen.

6) There are more commercial aircraft begin produced now than ever before.

Compensation is not a fact unless it is compared to a similar task, responsibility or event.

When you consider all of above facts you can clearly see that this is an industry in trouble. From pilots to airlines and manufacturers. Our industry has not yet been able to figure out how to speak with one voice.

We cannot expect the public to sympathize with us because their current view of pilots and aviation is quite negative. The public perception of pilots and the airlines now reflect around drunken pilots trying to fly passengers, striking pilots, poor pilot performance and lack of professionalism. Yes, the “Sully” factor did help but not enough to overcome all of the existing perceptions.

Until our industry fixes itself I doubt that much will change.

Steven Daun
V.P. Sales & Marketing
Aeroervice Aviation Center
www.aeroservice.com

[Mike F.]

There was an article in yesterday's NY Times on this subject:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/14/business/economy/14income.html?_r=1

The subject of the article was "demoted" from captian to FO for his commuter airline with his pay cut in half. The concerning part of the article was where his wife described his shorter temper and depression, and it effected him the cockpit as well. I fly commuter airlines several times each year and really don't want someone at the controls who is not alert and happy at his job. As pilots we are constantly warned to avoid distractions in the cockpit, and the subject of the article was definitely not in a good state.

My daughter just started her first job out of college with a "liberal arts" degree. Just basic office work, and it's paying $30k. And that's without special training or any particular responsibility short of showing up every day. The airlines need to join the real world. If it means they have to charge more, maybe they should if that's what it costs to deliver the service.

[Brian]

I've been out of professional aviation since 1993, but the same mantra was repeated over and over back then as well---there is a coming pilot shortage. In the 16 years since I left the industry, a pilot shortage has not materialized for all of the reasons people have mentioned. I turned down a regional job in 1993 for a starting pay of $11,700.00 for right seat in a Saab 340. Reading that starting pay is only $20K after 16 years looks to me like the pay problem has indeed gotten worse, and it reinforces my decision back then to refuse that pay level for the sake of my family. I make nearly 3x that pay now as a project manager and I get to be home every night with my wife and children. I have 10x the experience of new "pilot factory" grads, and I still would not take an airline flying job even if the starting pay was $45K. I hate to advise young aspiring pilots against an airline career, too, but I make a point of explaining the realities so at least they can make an informed decision early on---something I had to learn the hard way.

[Brian]

By way, I am saddened to see the industry in such trouble because it is still my "first love." I love to fly and miss being in the cockpit regularly, but it doesn't seem worth it anymore as a career option.

[David S.]

I think that in the years to come there will be a pilot shortage - mostly because of the pending legislation that ups the requirement for any part 121 pilot to have his ATP. No more '300-hour wonders' coming to the regionals means it will be too expensive for most people to get to the airlines. The bulk of this legislation is well thought out, but the airline pilot time requirements don't take into consideration the realities (and cost) of pilot training, entry-level jobs, and supply/demand.

[Steve]

Want to make a change? It will be real easy. All pilots making less than $35k/year just quit, NOW. It will be tuff for 1 year but than all those "airlines" will be out of buisness then and you will be rehired at a bigger airline for the now minuium wage of $35k/year.

There will never be a pilot shorage in this country, period.

[Bph]

In defense of the Express Jet pilot he didn't say he was "seldom in a sterile cockpit". His words were " I have had a few," Not exactly the same. The discussion on sterile cockpit will certainly lead to some knee jerk response like monitoring CVRs and not addressing the true problems like lack of experience and the issues that come with food stamp wages. Some of these issues are that pilots making these low wages are compelled to fly as much as possible just to make enough money to put fast food in there mouths and with that fatigue plays into it. They also feel like they cannot call in sick because they would get fired and that would not help their career.

Now on a different note I believe that Continental Airlines in this case should be held totally liable for this crash. These passengers bought tickets on Continental Airlines, not Colgan. They thought they were puting their lives in the hands of a company who has a reputaion for safety and reliablity. You can go online and buy a ticket on United Airlines from say Atlanta to Santa Barbara. You would find yourself riding on Skywest all the way. How would you like to go into surgery for a knee replacement and find out the high priced very experienced doctor you were paying was outsourcing his work to a first year doctor.

[Wyatt Stedman]

From 1939 to the end of WWII (6 years) the air force produced 192,676 pilots. That reduced significantly after the war. These (and Navy) military trained pilots were the initial cadre and built what we could call the "modern" era of airline travel. Korea ramped up to 5200 per year (double the production at the time) and stayed there until the end of the 50’s. It tapered off again until the late 60's and Vietnam.

My father was a T-38 IP from ’65-‘70. In the latter part of the 60’s, USAF pilot production was about 3000 per year. When I went through USAF pilot training in the late 70's it was down to less then 1500 per year. When I went back to the training command in the 80's it was down to 1200 per year. I understand it is less then 1000 per year now. I’m sure the Navy has cut proportionally to the USAF.

The military has traditionally been the production pipeline for the US airlines. That is ending.

I’m sure this will stick in someone’s craw, but where are the airlines going to find the experienced pilots to replace the large percentage of military trained pilots in the future? There is just no way to compare the training between military and civilian pilots. Everything from survival training, to leadership training, to physiological training, to altitude chamber training and the gamut in between. It’s the old adage, “It’s hard to explain unless you’ve been there.” (Yes, there are some great civilian trained pilots and some buffoon military guys, but overall…….)

It goes without saying, the heyday of the airlines are over. In the 60’s a TWA or PanAM Captain had respect to the point that there was a certain “aura” about being a pilot. Pay, schedules, vacation; well….it’s a different world.

Why would a military pilot making well over $100K (base pay, flight pay, subsistence, housing allowance, etc.) want to get out and start at less then $30K/yr on the outside chance that he MIGHT make Captain at a major (after 20 years!) only to make $150K (if he’s lucky!) He can get out and make more money selling insurance. Those sage and experienced pilots are not the wave of the future for the airlines. I see a lot more smoking holes out there.

As long as the flying public wants to fly coast to coast for $99, they will get what they pay for.

[Joe Harper]

Wyatt unwittingly hit on a big problem. Why are government types making so much more than private industry employees? Military pilots at $100,000/yr plus bennies while airline pilots make under thirty thousand? When are taxpayers going to wise up and stop the government-types from reaping escalating perquisites and big salaries while the backbone of America, private sector jobs, often pay far less? What happened to government service and sacrifice for America? Let's face it, we live in a house of cards surrounded by bankruptcies, layoffs and bailouts.

[Dave Gagne]

I'm an aspiring pilot and I think that there cannot be a pilot shortage, for now anyway...Case and point: At a recent air show, I spoke with a retired USAF U-2 pilot who's going back on active duty becuase he can't find a flying job. So, if a pilot with his hours, extensive training and experience can't get a flying gig in civilian life then what are the chances of someone like me who's just beginning to fly?

[Ray P, CFII]

Steven Daun lists 6 Facts above that point to a pilot shortage in the future (especially facts 1,2,3 &4) ...and Brian points out that that they talked about pilot shortages coming 16 years ago.

I don't think that we are even close to a pilot shortage right now, but I hope that one finally comes... then pilots can get the credit they deserve.

What I see right now in the USA is a pilot surplus.

[Robert Jones]

Interesting discussion, but I don't agree that low pay is the foundation of the problem.

As for the jealousy of sports figures' pay, I found that appallingly ignorant. The free market determines the value of your work. If poor piloting crashed 10% of all flights, you can bet that pilot's salaries would be very high as the airlines tried to attract the least likely to crash. The simple fact is there is no need for the airlines to hire the very best pilots in the world. The aircraft, and the missions, have HUGE margins of safety built in. If there were a need, the pilots would be paid on performance, not on seniority.

Now please don't misunderstand. I am not saying the best pilots aren't in the lines. But if they are there, it's not because they expect to get paid based on their performance in the cockpit.

[Wyatt Stedman]

Joe,

That $100K plus a year guy is a 15 year Major (after a 4 year degree, maybe a masters) and is worth every penny he is paid. The reason the pay and benefits are where they are today was to keep the pilots IN the military back in the 80's and early 90's. Guys were bailing out left and right back then to go fly for the airlines (which at the time were paying x2, x3 and in some instances x4 what the mil pilots made.) The problem is not the increase in the mil pay, it's the DECREASE in the civilian pay.

Long deployments, high ops tempo, change of duty stations every 2-3 years, overseas remote assignments all add up to why those guys are worth what they're paid. Add to that the "risk" factor and in my opinion, they are UNDER paid. In the 4 operational tours I had, we lost at least one pilot on each tour. In a 23 year tour I can't count on both hands the number of friends killed. How's that for "service and scarifice?"

Again, if the flying public wants highly experienced pilots with the S/A to keep them alive, they will have to pay the piper. Otherwise, keep flying coast to coast for $99 and get what you pay for.

Wyatt Stedman
USAF, Retired
Airline pilot (not passengers)

[Andrew, CFII MEI]

I think the airlines need to be re-regulated. PERIOD.

[Sean]

While the Buffalo accident is tragic, I think we need to take a step back and put some perspective around the statement that things are "just plane wrong" by looking at the broad safety record of the aviation industry which is at an all time best.

Consumers, and that means those making sub $30k salaries in other jobs, have a chance to afford travel in superb (yes superb) safety. Pilots that have a love and commitment for flying can get into the industry without the $300k in out-of-pocket expenses of a surgeon.

Do I think $20k is a fair starting salary? Obviously not (for me), since I walked away from aviation 5 years ago after spending tens of thousands of dollars (some of which I'm still repaying) to get my multi-commercial rating. However, I flew with professional individuals who were willing to make those sacrifices to get the best (this may scare some of you - but in my opinion shouldn't) on-the-job training as a First Officer.

On the sterile cockpit comments - I'll offer two conflicting statements. First, let's not define a professional cockpit as a sterile one. However, given the small amount of a time a modern airliner is below 10k feet, and the obligations of the job, a professional Captain should keep to the rule.

[Larry Simpkins]

I was very interested in the final paragraph in the article in which a poster had said "Flying as a profession is a very personal choice and I hold it very dear to my heart. I can't see my life without it. So whatever it takes..I'll be in the cockpit..." Herein lies one of the big problems. Most professional pilots are in this business because we love and want to fly airplanes ! The trouble is the employers learned long ago to take advantage of this passion. Alas, when we have been flying professionally for a few years and the novelty and passion has worn off a bit we start to become a bit more cynical. It happened to me and it will happen to you. It is just a matter of time. Now a decent salary and working conditions would go a long way to keeping the passion and enthusiasm alive. A happy pilot on the flight deck is a darn sight safer than one who has a major grudge with his management all the time. I know, before you shout at me about that last comment. We all fly safely because we are professionals and it's our job to get the people or freight to the destination. However a relaxed happy mental state helps a lot! I've also noticed that airplanes flown by happy pilots don't seem to break so often! Funny that, I wonder if management has ever noticed it?

[Tom G.]

Looking at drone and automated flight technology, I predict that in the future the planes will not have pilots, only a cockpit attendant. The attendant will only taxi to and from the gate and should he or she try to touch anything in flight they will be promptly chastised by Hal.

[Airline Pilot]

The point of the original article was that there might be a pilot shortage looming, and one of my quotes was in this second article. Again, there is NO PILOT SHORTAGE. There hasn’t been one for decades. There will not be one in the foreseeable future. If you're getting into this business in anticipation of this "looming shortage," I suspect you will be sadly disappointed, and I truly wish you luck.

There have been, for very brief periods, shortages of pilots willing to work for less than a living wage (i.e. 2007 in the regional airline industry), but that certainly doesn't equate to a pilot labor shortage. Further, looking at the FAA's data for the past 10 years of "Additional Airmen Ratings Issued by Category" from 1999-2008 (10 years of data), there is NOTHING that indicates a severe drop off in commercial pilots or ATP's. The creation of pilots in those "professional pilot" categories simply follows the ebb and flow of the economic conditions during the years you examine. No shortage manifesting itself there, either. 15,000+ new ATP's were created in 2008.....what do you think? Do you think those 15,000 ATP’s are going to get hired anywhere, anytime soon?

If a shortage actually materialized a decade down the road (for example), how do you fix it? Easily. Under the current regulations, you can go from zero to hero in about 9 months. Raise entry level wages high enough so that a career changer or a young person can expect to cover the cost of flight training, and you'll have all the pilots you want, again for the foreseeable future. And that's not even counting all the qualified guys "sitting on the sidelines" who would happily re-enter the profession provided the proper financial incentive.

In conclusion, this "pilot shortage" myth is being manufactured by the likes of the flight training industry, like the one mentioned in the first article, and various aeronautical universities. All of these entities have an inherent conflict of interest so the information provided by them should be held suspect. A potential future pilot should keep his hand firmly on his wallet when reading or hearing their marketing material and glossy brochures. How else are they going to sell their product if they can't convince potential clients that a "lucrative future" is available to them within this industry unless a supposed "big pilot shortage" comes?

[Urology Doctor, M.D.]

Pilot pay will remain low because of two reasons: flying is fun and market forces. Let's face it, many people want to be pilots because it's an amazing ability and privilege and it's fun. The unionized pilots and other workers who don't make wage concessions will be out of a job when their companies fold (United and Delta file bankruptcy, pilots and retirees then make make concessions/give up something or end up with nothing).

Southwest is my favorite airline because the flights are on time, customer service is great and the employees always smile, they never strike, and they have the cheapest ticket prices.

I used to live in Georgia and had to depend on Delta. They cancelled half the flights (when sparsely populated) between Atlanta and Augusta. I only remember being on one Delta flight that took off and arrived on time. I didn't have to worry if I got caught in traffic on the way to the airport because I could count on Delta flight delays in Atlanta. The customer service at the counter and in flight was dismal.

If you think it's bad now. Just wait. It will get worse. If Delta outsources it's customer service to India, how long do you think it will be until Indian pilots fly for Delta? They will have just as much experience and be great pilots and will work for a third of what the Americans demand. Air travel lends itself to international commuting. Think about it. We live in the US and fly transoceanic flights. Why not hire pilots from other countries to do those flights? (I can think of many reasons but the airlines think in dollars and that is the logical outcome.)

I think soon the American pilot industry will be a lot more like the medical field. As Americans get out of medicine, more people from Asia (India and Pakistan) work in America (and they are great doctors). If you haven't seen many of them ask a Canadian or a Brit about the Asian to Anglo ratio and they will tell you. Then wait for ObamaCare and you will definitely see it first hand. The American doctors will be signing up for flight training!

[Troy]

I like the comment here... "My passion for flying will not even come close to being consumed by this negative attitude! Of course education costs money and a Master's in Aeronautical Science and all the ratings do not come cheap. Flying as a profession is a very personal choice and I hold it very dear to my heart. I can't see my life without it. So whatever it takes..I'll be in the cockpit...". This was ME four years ago. Now I have 65000 dollars in student loans and am not flying. I still look up at every airplane that flies by, wishing and dreaming that I was still in the air. But the need to eat (Maslows hierarchy of needs), overrides the need to fly... Really sad too, as aviation is my life passion!!!