A Crisis in Flight Training

I just spent a day at Delta Connection Academy (DCA) listening to industry experts discuss the state of airline flying and the industry training programs that feed the profession.

The big questions raised at the round-table conference centered around what DCA, which sponsored the event, said was a coming shortage of pilots. Many furloughed pilots have been out of the cockpit for more than five years, and many of those pilots say that they don’t plan on coming back to an airline job. On top of that, training providers across the industry say that business is off. Several said during the conference that nobody believes there will be enough new pilots to fill the seats on regional airliners even in a couple of years. 

The coming shortage--of pilots and students--is based on a number of factors, some of which are frightening to the training providers because there’s very little they can do about them.

Perhaps the biggest factor is the drying up of financing to prospective students. Many students who want to fly—and DCA says that it’s getting as many applications as ever—simply can’t get loans. DCA’s Jason Dauderman says that the company’s loan application acceptance rate is down to about 30 percent, and the amount of the loans that lenders approve has decreased, as well.

Part of why it’s harder for students to get loans is because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis that caused a worldwide recession. The same thing happened with student loans, as you might know, as the sub-prime market spread into the student loan market, with lenders okaying loans to inumerable students who had poor credit, poor academic records, and little prospects of paying off the loans. As a result, Sallie Mae, the private lending company, is writing off a billion dollars of bad student loans. Long story short, the crisis in student loans prompted many lenders to leave the student loan market altogether.    

While the biggest reason that many lenders have fled the aviation student loan market is related to the financial crisis, the recession has made it harder than ever for students to pay off their loans, which are typically between $100,000 and $200,000 per student, if the entire two-to-four-year education is financed. And there's little chance of those costs coming down. Flight instruction, as Dauderman pointed out, is an expensive proposition. We as pilots understand that all too well.

And when lenders look at the risk, they see some big question marks. Will the student actually be able to earn their ratings? Some do wash out. And if they're successful, will they be able to land a job and be able to pay off their loans? And  if they do wind up in the right seat of an airliner, will they be able to pay off those loans on the $18,000 annual salary they might earn for starters? Of course not.

And if Congress has its way, we might be looking at the need for first officers to have an ATP, a requirement that will add tens of thousands of dollars to these students' debt, making it more difficult for students to get loans and for school to attract young people to their programs. For the record, no one at the conference thought the right-seat ATP provision would improve safety.

Perhaps the most troubling question raised at the event was whether airline flying was a profession that any young person should pursue. One attendee, a bright young many who got his ratings at DCA and now flies left seat in an AirBus for JetBlue said that he loves his job and still backs the profession. But he admitted on numerous occasions that there were big factors--chiefly economic ones--that should give any prospective student pause.

Would I advise my kids to become airline pilots? As much as I love flying, in this day and age, it would be hard advice to give unless conditions changed substantially.

One thing has to happen. The airlines need to start paying starting pilots more money, a lot more money.  A starting salary of $30,000 would go a long way toward making the transition to professional life if not attractive, then at least survivable, though barely. Starting teachers in almost every state make more. And there’s no doubt that the airlines should start subsidizing training a great deal more than they already do. Today their subsidies consist largely of partnerships with training academies to give jobs to their graduating students, a good marketing approach but one that does nothing to help students cut their indebtedness. Why not have the airlines foot part of the training bill? It would be to everyone’s advantage, especially theirs. After all, they're the ones who need the pilots.

And it's not all the regional airlines' fault. The major airlines share much of the blame. After all, they're the ones who on a daily basis squeeze their regional partners to cut costs--especially labor costs--to the bone, and then some.

And schools need to start pre-qualifying students, helping to ensure that those who can get loans have what it takes to get their ratings.  That's a tough thing to do when times are hard. To be sure, some schools view a "qualified" student as one who can get a loan, as opposed to one who has the right stuff to fly an airliner. That kind of cynical view isn't fair to anybody.

Right now schools are doing a lot of selling from the point of view that pilots will need to make a sacrifice to get into the profession. (That's also talking point number one for the Regional Airline Association.) The truth is, that's the absolute truth. And it just might pay off for those pilots in the long run. I for one sure hope so,

But as it stands today, the sacrifice is just too much, far too much, to ask.

Comments

[SS Driver]

I love flying and have worked both as a CFI and a regional first officer. I can say that I would never advise anyone to pursue a career in airline aviation. The reality is, no one can pay off loans with an airline salary (even a left seat one) and in my estimation, the lending institutions are wise to avoid student loans to pilots. Beyond the economic realities of aviation today and in the future, the whole business has lost its mystique. There are lot of non-economic reasons to work as a pilot that are also dying off. Most people I know think I lost my mind working for $20K and being on the road 18 days a month. I have felt that most people are not that impressed when I tell them I'm a pilot; I'm just a bus driver in their mind. Sully did a lot for a short time to change that view of pilots, but it won't last. People just don't want to pay more the $49 to have their life safeguarded at FL400. The way this industry works, even with a "pilot shortage" increased pay will be the last thing the airlines want to do, they will hire foreign pilots first, and work the ones they have as hard as possible. Its the only system in the world where supply and demand do not dictate price. Wacky to the core!

[Jim]

I read this same nonsense in the late 70s. Shortage! I, with my BS degree, Honorable Discharged Vietnam Vet, several thousand hours of flying time as pilot and CFI, largely lived in my car. Late 80s I finally got my
major airline job with 7000 hours in the book. Then at age 60, AFTER ICAO countries changed the age to 65, the FAA, ALPA and Congress threw several thousand of us onto the streets. I haven't flown an airplane in 2.5 years.
Too expensive to rent. Couldn't find a job domestically OR internationally
with 19,000 hours and Types in 737,757,767,777. I just started collecting
Social Security at age 62, Thanks for nothing America. If I could do it again, when that draft notice comes, I'd be off to Canada. A corrupt place we live in.

[Jim]

And for the youngsters at ALPA who gladly saw us leave, not every Captain had 30+ years careers and many years left seat. I had ONE full year as a line-holder bottom feeder CA. One! Reserve the other 5. Out of 20 total. So no, I didn't make a fortune at all. You "seat takers" (in place of a nasty word), should be ashamed of yourselves but we know what Jack London had to say about you all. Yes you are.

[Tom G.]

Anyone spending $100K to $200K for an $18K per year job in my opinion receives an F for judgement. That is why I will never buy a ticket on a flight operated by a regional. As a former corporate pilot, I don't understand why anybody would want to fly for an airline. I never flew for an airline, but I honestly can not see the appeal.

[cliff]

Hi!
Cadet Training Systems:
Many foreign airlines have had "Cadet" programs in place for a long time. They are similar to the military, where they accept only a very select few, and then pay for their training. The cadets who graduate have to fly for the airline for a long time (in China, I think 10 years is typical) to pay for their training. This system could be adapted in the US, if the airlines wanted to. For it to work, the ATP requirement for -121 FOs would have to not exist.
ATP Requirement:
Having an ATP requirement for ALL -121 pilots, with our current training system, WOULD increase safety. More experienced pilots, on average, are safer than less experienced pilots. Of course there are individual differences, and a training program like the US military has, overcomes many of the experience deficits. However, unless we want to change our pilot training, requiring an ATP for ALL -121 pilots will improve safety. Is it worth the cost? I don't know.
Foreign Pilots:
There is a MASSIVE shortage of pilots outside of N. America/Europe. That is why so many US pilots are flying overseas (I am based in NBO, myself). The foreign pilots trained here in the US are DESPERATELY needed overseas. A foreign pilot can be trained here, but it is VERY difficult to get the right to work here in the US. If it were easy to work anywhere, I would be working in Europe right now.
FAA Inefficiencies:
The FAA could use a DRASTIC overhaul in how they regulate and oversee the commercial side of flying. Their regulations are outdated and often VERY vague. The FAA allows their Regional Offices, FSDOs, and POIs to interpret the regs in any way they see fit, not by law, but in practice. Some commercial (or non-commercial, but operating as commercial) operators are unfairly penalized, as their competitors are allowed to apply the regulations more leniently. Pilots, operators, mechanics, managers, and manufacturers often have difficulty following the regulations, as they change drastically, depending on which FAA employee is interpreting the rules at that particular moment.
If the FAA does not overahaul ALL their regulations, Congress should step in and fix them, as they did by changing the Age 65 rule. Part of this change could benefit flight training in this country.

cliff
NBO

[chuck h]

Here's some idea's. Airlines, allow lower time newbies. They probably already are required to fly with high time captains.

Flight schools, lower the rental costs. Amortize the cost of the aircraft over a longer time, especially if the school bought the plane outright. Currently UND is charging $113 per hour for a late 90's warrior. It's go over 9000 hours on it. I think it's paid for by now. Does it still cost that much to operate? I find it hard to believe, but the stockholders apparently think so.

Engine's. $20,000 for a lycoming 360 seems very steep, especially considering the power output, 160 or so, and fuel economy, 8-10 gph. that's about $40 per hour just for fuel. let's see a retrofit kit for JetA burning diesel's like the Diamond twinstar, which did 180 mph+ on 10GPH. thats 5 GPH per engine.

Fed's. Back of on the millions of dollars required to spent on new anything airplane related. You're taxing us out of existence already. And do I really NEED to know all the regs to fly safely? Speaking of which, the new FAR/AIM is already obsolete and it's not even in effect yet! SIMPLIFY people simplify.

I gotta go study for my flight tomorrow. regs again. wish me luck!

[Mike Schrader]

Robert good insight, one thing the airlines could do is pay for the training when hired. It could be a tiered for years on the job. So much for sign up i.e. a signing bonus, then so much per year after that until a certain amount has been reached if not all.

The cost of flying has gone out of control. For a student to be 100 to 200k in debt before they land a job is insane. I know the medical field has signing bonuses etc. it could work the same way in the aviation industry. A good friend of ours got her nursing degree, they paid a signing bonus, part of her previous tuition etc.

The pay is also sub par, considering the nurse I mentioned above she makes 60 to 80 k a year depending on how much she wants to work. Now if she makes a mistake one person might be affected, if the pilot makes a mistake then everyone on board is affected. Not equitable pay I would say. So the airlines need to step up.

[Ray G]

"And if Congress has its way, we might be looking at the need for first officers to have an ATP, a requirement that will add tens of thousands of dollars to these students' debt, making it more difficult for students to get loans and for school to attract young people to their programs."

This is not true. Back in the early nineties, competitive minimums to be an FO in a Metroliner or Bandeirante for a commuter outfit was 2000 to 3000 hours and pilots back then managed one way or another to build the required experience. Besides, what are they thinking? Will flight schools conjure up time-builder programs to provide the required experience for an ATP? Give me a break! How about people getting jobs as instructors, flying skydivers, Grand Canyon tour pilots etc. to get real world experience up to those minimums? What a novel concept! The aviation industry is becoming Wal Martized!

"For the record, no one at the conference thought the right-seat ATP provision would improve safety."

Of COURSE they didn't. So, a crew in which the Captain has to hold the hand of some 300 hour FO wonderboy pilot mill grad is just as safe as a crew with the same Captain and an FO with an ATP? No way. The ATP requirement will improve safety, period. Their opinion on the ATP requirement for the FO is purely economical.

[PDW]

I've been flying professionally for 24 years. There hasn't been a pilot shortage. There is no pilot shortage. There will not pilot shortage. This is a lie perpetuated by big name pilot factories and the likes of Kit Darby. I have seen many articles like this they're all BS. Don't believe they hype. To attest what others have already said, the only possible future shortage will be of pilots willing to work the bottom feeder regional jobs.

Aspiring airline pilots, this is not a hobby, it is our livelihood. Don't let your shiny jet syndrome blind you so much that you're willing to work for peanuts and send this industry even farther down the crapper.

[Tom Hopkins]

How about starting out in the military? I did, Pensacola was great. Fun flying and great beaches. It was during the Vietnam era but what the heck, we were all fearless 24+ guys.
Learn to fly on the govenrment's dime! When we finished flight school the FAA issued us our commerical fixed wing and helicopter with instrument tickets. Guys in my squadron built time flying OV-10's and several got picked up by United out of LAX. Airlines like military pilots.
I went on to a federal law enforcement job flying public use aircraft. Great job and good career.
Not all military flight jobs mean you fly aircraft that get shot at.
Those who don't want to spend 4 years in college look to the Army's Warrant Officers flight program. The Army does fly fixed wing too. Start there and build on it.
Good Luck!

[I.B. Furloughed]

Let the pilot shortage happen!

We've been talking about it for 15 years, so let it happen. It's the best thing that could happen to the industry. Starting wages will probably go up and airlines that are great places to work will have enough pilots to do the flying. Horrible places to work like GoJet and Mesa will not have the pilots to fuel their race to the bottom...

[Dan R]

As a long time CFI, and the father of a furloughed Expressjet pilot, I have been around long enough to see the hills and valleys of pilot hiring. When my Son graduated from college in 2007 regional hiring was in a feeding frenzy. My Son got job offers by 2 regional airlines. He had 800tt and 600 multi. He was employed by Xjet for 1 year. He loved the people and the flying. He was lucky to find a flying job flying a Citation 560 for a land developer. He wishes he could fly more but I have to remind him we are in the worst recession since the great depression. So, I will address a couple of observations.
To those that are furloughed.....hang in there! 2 to 3 years and you will see a hiring frenzy like never before! Soon the older pilots will reach age 65 and will have to go. Also like someone mentioned in a previous post, many furloughed pilots have found other employement and will not return to aviation.
For the young prospective pilots.....I hate to say it like this but hear it goes.....find another profession. most people do not have the money it takes to become marketable. The pay is too low to make up any ground. Don't waste your time. I hate to sound pessimistic but I see no other way. Flight schools are closing daily, GA is dying, New pilot starts are usually people with well established jobs and fly for personal business and pleasure. Get a great career going and buy your own plane. I am so glad I learned to fly many years ago because there is no way I could afford the training today.
Good luck to all the furloughees.

[phil gutierrez]

Thank you all for all of your comments. Very interesting!!!keep them comming!!!!

[Ace Ellinwood]

The delegates are absolutely right that requiring an ATP for First Officers does NOT increase safety. In a decade of training new hire pilots and checking out new captains in 737s as an airline check airman, I saw no overall difference between pilots who had ATPs, or even type ratings, and those who had only a commercial license. What counts is what you paid attention to and learned during your last few years of flying, not the ATP or Type Rating you got several years ago in a simulator or a small airplane. In answer to a previous post, passing an ATP checkride doesn't require flying an ILS to minimums in actual weather.

My advice to Congress and to pilots is if you want to increase safety, take a short course in upset recovery training (preferably in an airplane, so you can experience the physical sensations of inverted and high-G flight, but practice in a simulator is very beneficial, also). The FAA is now requiring this training in airline initial and recurrent syllabi. You'll be ahead of the game if you can do a smooth and expeditious recovery to level flight the first time your airline sim instructor vectors you behind a simulated heavy and flips you upside down. Not to mention that such training may save your life in the real world, too.

[Jon Croghan]

There are a lot of teachers who thilnk $30,000 is low. For the amount of training required, usually 5 years, and including addidtiional classes for professional development afterwards, education is usually at the bottom of the list when it comes to the professions.

[Jim]

Flying training has always been expensive. Some of us didn't do it all at retail prices at fancy very expensive pilot schools. We bought shares in small planes, became owners and built time at nominal rates. Of course we had to rent occasionally but the savings was large. What, the flight schools want a bailout like Detroit? 270 day wonders lack seasoning.

[Airline Pilot]

C'mon, the "pilot shortage" matra is being touted again? Are you kidding me? I've been in the business for over 2 decades now and I have heard this phrase repeated over and over almost the entire time. Of course the Delta Connection Academy is out there saying there is going to be a pilot shortage! How else are they going to get hapless students to shell out tens of thousands of dollars for their product with entry level salaries for their graduates in the low 20's. Sorry guys, but there is no pilot shortage now, it is doubtful that there will be one in the next 5 to 10 years, and there certainly hasn't been on in the past quarter decade or so.

Regardless, if the mythical "pilot shortage" does ever rear its head, the problem can very easily be fixed. There is no shortage of unemployed pilots, military pilots, young people, and guys who are working in non-aviation jobs currently that want to be airline pilots. Many of the above groups would happily undergo the time and expense of taking an entry-level airline pilot job, probably at a regional airline, if these airlines simply paid a living wage. If the regionals, for example, paid a living wage of around $40k to $50k a year, and adjusted the rest of their pay scale accordingly, they would have all the pilots they needed, forever and ever. It's not as if a wage like this will bankrupt the industry. Pilot wages make up around 2% of an airline's total cost, so at worst airlines would have have to increase fares 2% to cover this increased "financial burden," if you can even call it that.

My advice to those wanting to enter the airline pilot profession- don't- but hear me out. Get a degree in a NON-AVIATION related field at first. Work in that profession, but "practice" by living on $20K/year, because that's the wage you're going to live on for a very long time when you make the jump from your current profession to the airline pilot profession. Save the difference between your current salary and your $20K/year "practice" salary so that you will have money for your flight training when you make the jump and perhaps graduate with your ratings with little or no debt. When this mythical pilot shortage reveals itself, simply make the transfer in professions and you'll be way ahead of the poor guys who are trying to pay down 10's of thousands of dollars in debt on $20k/year because you will already know how to live on such a low salary AND you'll have money in the bank. Good luck!

[Dan R]

Airline pilot, you are a moron! "pilot shortage" is a relative term that only those previously employed will come to realize.
Do the flippin' math! There will be a pilot shortage in the next few years. The military guys are not going civilian anymore. Many of the older guys that were furloughed with families will not return to aviation. Student starts are near zero! CFI's are not earning hours. Where are we going to get the new crop of pilots from? It's not rocket science. Yes, I'm in the business too, NOT one of those ticket mills you speak about. It's easy to see what's going on. As for your advise to "practice" living on $20K......You don't have to practice numbskull, most college graduates no matter the major, come out with NO job available. So, if you can make more than by all means DO IT! Bye the way, I am thick skinned and wrote this truthfully with tongue in cheak. Feel free to speak your mind too :)

[Mike M]

The 'pilot shortage' is and always has been a myth. There is no shortage of pilots. They are everywhere. What there is is a shortage of pilots who are willing to work for the regionals starting at $16,000 - $20,000 per year and never getting a lot better. Those companies know this, and so rather than raise the wages and benefits, they simply keep lowering the standards. Eventually, they will find SOMEBODY who will do it. Heck - there are probably individuals who would fly for free just to get the experience. But do you really want to put your wife and kids in a 45 seat jet with some kid with 300 hours total time?

I've been flying for 30 years and went up through the military. Been with a major airline for 22 years now. My two teenage boys have listened to me bitch about the conditions in this industry and they don't want to go near an airplane. And mine sits 30 feet away in my hangar home. Sad, but nothing stays the same for very long in this fast moving world.

I support the effort to have all 121 pilots hold ATP's.

[Airline Pilot]

Dan R......I suggest you choose your words more carefully. Calling fellow posters names such as "moron" is uncalled for.

Show me ANYTHING from the FAA that shows student starts are near zero. Anything. You probably don't even know where to find annualized student starts on government websites. Prove me wrong.

Military guys aren't going civilian anymore because there are no pilot jobs because THERE IS NO PILOT SHORTAGE in the non-military sectors. When the airline industry provides jobs that pay a living wage, pilots will leave the military to fill those positions, just as they have in the past. In the meantime, there are 1000's of pilots sitting on the sidelines waiting to fill some future demand. For the next several years, that demand will easily be filled by the categories mentioned in my previous post, and then some.

Maybe you're still a young kid, but there's a BIG difference between living on 20K/year as a college student and living on 20K/year as someone whose budget concerns go beyond beer and Ramen noodles. Most people over college age of 25 want to be able to drive a reasonable car, own a home or rent an apartment without multiple roommates or without living with Mom and Dad, save for retirement, save for their children's education, have health and disability insurance, and perhaps, perish the thought, take a nice vacation or have a little extra in the budget to enjoy a luxury. True, other professionals come out with no job available, but the difference is that other professions have a reasonable expectation of earning living wages when they do find employment. On the other hand, airline pilots can expect very low wages for the first several years of their career and will likely financially lag their peers in other professions. Why? The reason pilot wages are low is because of simple economics- PILOT SUPPLY FAR EXCEEDS DEMAND so employers can easily pay a low wage to fill their pilot employment needs. This supply and demand metric will continue to be out of our (i.e. pilot's) favor well into the foreseeable future.

[planesense]

The training companies sound like a broken record, how many times have you heard the line, there are "a coming shortage of pilots" from these people they just continually run articles that I see are in no other way to say it, being paid for by the training schools themselves. Right now ten of my friends are out of work just praying to jump in a plane at some point, but wait if the minimums are raised to ATP standards it would take like two years of instructing to get that kind of time! If you ask me its worth every hour of that time before you jump in an airliner. Aviation experience seems to have lower value compared to wages. The airlines will always hire little jimmy with a shiny new commercial license over Jim who has an atp and decision making to back it up. All because little jimmy will work for less and fly in conditions that Jim learned a long time ago where not worth the risk.